They argue that the 10th District race has yet to "heat up" largely due to Chris Hackett's low profile:
Carney's Republican challenger, Chris Hackett, has kept a low profile since upsetting Dan Meuser to win the GOP nomination. Hackett may be working behind the scenes to mend fences with party leaders who had worked against him in the primary, but his public appearances have been few and far between. Hackett campaigned aggressively to win the party nomination, and he may feel that a prolonged stretch of campaigning is unneeded in the Republican-majority 10th District.I'm not so sure they hit the nail on the head with this assessment. First and foremost, it is hard to argue that the race has not--in real terms--heated up. Certainly, it has not reached its pinnacle, but by any measure, the race between Carney and Hackett has intensified since the primary. Any time an incumbent is forced to air ads before Labor Day, it is clear that campaign season has started early.
Regarding Hackett's "low profile," I would venture to theorize that it's not only Chris Hackett's lack of public appearances that is painting the perception of a low-profile, but also his campaign's inability to drive media coverage of his campaign's message.
Chris Hackett has been relatively visible since the primary trying to jump start his candidacy. The problem seems to be that a majority of his campaign's coverage has existed in the blogs. Few in the media have gravitated to his camp for substance, and his campaign has been forced to react to stories rather than create and drive the news. For instance, every week, the Hackett campaign produces a handful of press releases citing Carney's failures as a Congressman. However, no one in the media appears to be sinking into these issues. Certainly, there has been some success with this, but I'm sure not as much as his campaign would like. It is almost as if the Hackett campaign is throwing paint at the wall and hoping something will stick--not only to Carney, but resonate with the media at large. For better or worse, one of Hackett's most effective talking points has been to debate Carney on the fall debate schedule. I don't know if this is an issue voters will take with them into the ballot box.
All of this effectively means that Hackett has not been able to push the ball into Carney's court. The election this fall with likely be a referendum on Carney. The less leverage Hackett is able to generate in the media, the more likely it is that Carney will have success. It could still be true that Hackett is mending fences in private after the split between he and Meuser. Publicly however, campaign manager Mark Harris has argued that everything is fine and it will be a non-issue this fall.
Of course, all of this could simply be because the election has not intensified to full tilt and the campaign is waiting to hit its stride.
1 comment:
I think what's happening here is Hackett is starting to realize that he does not have the support he thought he would as the Republican nominee. Carney has been very effective at attracting moderate R's in the district and his rural background appeals much more then a city guy from Philadelphia. Hackett’s numbers are likely telling him that the only way he can win is by going negative, otherwise he would have been on the air with a positive message. Money is certainly not an issue, unless Mrs. Hackett tells him he is cut off. My guess is that he will wait until after Labor Day and start throwing as much mud as he can to see what sticks. That would indicate that he is indeed behind and very desperate.
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