Eroding Base

Good article from the Associated Press this morning regarding the Republicans and their fight to hold rural voters in November.

It seems rather obvious to many observers that Republicans will carry these voters in the upcoming election, but tough economic times over the last four years combined with a declining standard of living in some of these rural parts have caused pundits to question how strong that support will be this election season.

The article makes note of the fact that Bush won 60% of rural voters in the last election cycle. While early polling this election still highlights a McCain lead in rural voters, the margin has tightened. Obviously in such a close election, Republicans can't bleed votes in this bedrock category.

Certainly, the economy will be a powerful issue this fall, but it won't exist in a vacuum for most voters. Other social issues could help to stabilize this demographic. Yet, even if Obama is able to make inroads with this group (as he's already started a "Barns for Obama" campaign in Ohio), it may not necessarily motivate people to vote for him. Rather, it could just cause rural voters to stay home which would equally erode McCain's projected base.

Nationally, the importance of connecting with rural voters is significant because in battleground states across the country they represent anywhere from 10% to 20% of the electorate. Reaching out to these voters needs to become an important component of McCain's strategy if he's going to have success.

That's a point Terry Madonna also concedes: "McCain will have problems getting a high turnout among those voters unless he finds some way to identify with them, some way to make them think that, A, he’s not connected to Bush, and B, his economic plan is superior to Obama’s."