Carney's 2-to-1 lead

Chris Carney put out a press release yesterday trumpeting the results of a recent Momentum Analysis poll.

The Momentum Analysis poll showed Carney with a dominant 2-to-1 lead over Hackett (54% to 27%)

Said campaign manger Vince Rongione, "These polls confirm what we already know. Congressman Carney has very strong support across party lines and across the district. We will continue to fight for every vote and focus on the issues that really matter, but it is very encouraging to see that our positive message is connecting with voters in every corner of Northeast and Central Pennsylvania."

The Momentum Analysis poll, however, stands in stark contrast with the Survey USA Poll that announced a statistical dead heat between the Carney and Hackett.

Several things to note about this Momentum Analysis poll:

1. The polling data that Chris Carney is using to demonstrate his 2-to-1 lead over Chris Hackett comes from Momentum Analysis which is a self-identified liberal-leaning
   organization. According to its own mission statement, Momentum Analysis helps "forward Democratic and progressive causes."
2. Margie Omero, who serves at the President of Momentum, worked for Chris Carney in 2006 campaign to unseat Don Sherwood.
3. The Momentum Analysis survey is less statistically sound than the Survey USA poll. The sample size in the Momentum Analysis poll is only two-thirds of what the Survey USA poll was and a much larger margin of error.
4. While this poll may not be credible on its own, the latest poll from Momentum Analysis could serve as a comparison to a poll they took of the district in January. These two snapshots demonstrate that Carney's disapproval rating has increased, his approval rating has decreased, and the race has tightened.
   
• In January, Carney had a 58% approval rating (12% disapproval rating) with a 55% to 21% lead over Chris Hackett.
• Now in August, Carney received a 53% approval rating (18% disapproval rating) with a 54% to 27% lead over Chris Hackett.

On the whole, it's very difficult to compare these two polls. Obviously, reasons #1, #2, and #3 above tend to render the Momentum Analysis less accurate. As Hackett campaign manger Mark Harris stated, "Carney can make up any numbers he wants. The independent polling is far more credible."

In addition, Survey USA has a strong reputation for it's accuracy:

"SurveyUSA, which pioneered these polls, has an impressive record for accuracy. The company ranks second among more than 30 pollsters rated by Mr. Silver. Its own report card shows it ranking at or near the top in predictive power for recent national election cycles."

If I were a betting man, I would wager the situation in the 10th District currently looks more like the Survey USA poll (Carney 49%- Hackett 45% ) than the Momentum Analysis poll posits.