Tom Barnes at the Post-Gazette cites some forces which could drive the budget to be passed sooner rather than later.
First, Governor Ed Rendell's own ego. The National Governor's Association is slated to meet July 11-14 in Philadelphia, and it would be rather embarrassing for Rendell to attend this event--held in his own backyard--while still bickering over budgetary matters.
Second, most of the larger initiatives have been taken off the table. Items such as leasing the Turnpike and the Democrats' plan to increase health care coverage will not be addressed until the fall.
As Terry Madonna notes in his most recent article:
"For Rendell and the legislature in this current era, the budget has become a long running proxy fight over larger issues Pennsylvanians are struggling with as the state evolves into the 21st century—issues about education, infrastructure investment, energy policy, health care, and much else. In short, Pennsylvania’s perennial budget impasses represent substantive debates about the future of the state in a period of critical transformation."
With that said, it is very unlikely that a budget will be passed before the deadline, as the Rendell administration has never accomplished such a task.
House Democratic leader Bill DeWeese seems optimistic he'll get to the July 4th parade this year, but advised his colleagues to bring some extra garments for the long days ahead. Other legislators are much more pessimistic (or realistic however you choose to look at the situation) and just hoping a budget can be agreed to by mid-July.
It appears the budget debate will be driven by two primary issues: agreeing to a baseline budget number for the upcoming fiscal year and by just how much education funding will increase from the current year.
How legislators come to a consensus on these two thornier issues will go far in setting the tone for further budget negotiations.
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