Predicting The Fall Congressional Elections

The "Primary Colors" blog at the Pittsburgh Times-Review posted their expectations on all of the Pennsylvania Congressional seats in the fall:

GOP Safe Seats:

• Rep. Bill Shuster -- 9th
• Rep. Joe Pitts -- 16th
• Rep. Todd Platts -- 19th

Unlikely But Possible GOP Loss:

• Rep. John Peterson -- 5th
  

GOP Seats That Could Potentially Be Lost Due To A Harsh Election Climate:

• Rep. Phil English-- 3rd
• Rep. Jim Gerlach -- 6th
• Rep. Charlie Dent -- 15th
• Rep. Tim Murphy -- 18th

Democratic Safe Seats:

• Rep. Rob Brady -- 1st
• Rep. Chaka Fattah -- 2nd
• Rep. Joe Sestak -- 7th
• Rep. Paul Kanjorski -- 11th
  
• Rep. Jack Murtha -- 12th
• Rep. Allyson Schwartz -- 13th
• Rep. Mike Doyle -- 14th
• Rep. Tim Holden -- 17th

Somewhat Safe Democratic Freshmen:

• Rep. Jason Altmire -- 4th
  
• Rep. Patrick Murphy -- 8th
  

Democratic At-Risk

• Rep. Chris Carney -- 10th

Just some general thoughts on a few of these races:

I agree with most of "Primary Colors" predictions. However, I don't necessarily believe that the 4 GOP seats listed as potential losses are in too much danger. For instance, Reps. English and Gerlach are more moderate Republicans and used to tougher elections. English faces Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper in the fall, but he's squeaked by in previously tough elections. English won by a fairly comfortable 12% margin in '06 which was an election year that had repercussions for other Republican incumbents. Democrats took down 4 Pennsylvania Republican Incumbents in 2006 (Melissa Hart-4th, Curt Weldon-7th Mike Fitzpatrick-8th, Don Sherwood-10th). So unfortunately the tide did shift somewhat in during the past election cycle. Considering English's political positioning and past experience, the reelection odds are in his favor.

Gerlach on the other hand won by just 2% in 2006. He could be a little more vulnerable because of the surge of Democratic registration in his district, but he's sitting on a large reelection chest having raised over $1.5 million. He faces a new challenger in Democratic Bob Roggio, but Roggio demonstrated his first rookie mistake by criticizing Gerlach for missing votes after his mother had just passed away.

Even though Republican John Peterson isn't running again, he did enjoy wide support in '06 (winning by 20%). 9 Republican Challengers were on the ballot in April Primary. Glenn Thompson won with 19% of the vote and beat the runner up Matt Shaner by a little over a thousand votes. He will face off against Democrat Mark McCracken in the fall. The fifth district does have a solid majority of registered Republicans so Thompson should enjoy some success.

I'd also like to believe Paul Kanjorski is vulnerable to Republican Lou Barletta. Kanjorski did beat Barletta in 2002 by 14%, but Kanjorski has a little more dirt on him now from corrupt earmarking and more votes to emphasize. Barletta has also made more of a stand-alone name for himself since 2002 as the anti-immigration mayor of Hazleton. It will be a uphill battle given the dynamics of the election year, but Barletta could feasibly produce the upset.

Also, Democratic freshman Patrick Murphy could face a tougher than expected challenge in Republican Tom Manion. Murphy won by only 1,000 votes in '06 (although he did upset an incumbent which is a difficult task). One challenge Minion has to overcome is fund raising. While Murphy hasn't done much in his first term, the $1.6 million Murphy has already raised will help distinguish himself from his rival.

At the end of the day, it's still a little early to be making predictions as there are a lot of variable in play before then.

Correction: Dem. Tommy Myers was originally posted as the challenger to Phil English's seat. That has since been corrected.