Tuesday, May 13, 2008

The New G.I. Bill

Senator Jim Webb (D-VA) introduced a bill seeking to update the original G.I. Bill from World War II. Formally called "the Post 9/11 Veterans Educational Assistance Act of 2008," it would increase the amount of educational assistance to service members who have enrolled after September 11, 2001. Members who have served three years of cumulative active duty service will be rewarded with a full ride to any public university in the nation. It would roughly double the benefit size under current law.

Morally, the bill would be a great way to support the troops fighting abroad.

However, there are several important points of consideration to keep in mind. First, this proposed legislation would increase recruits but decrease retention. Hence, it's not an outright net gain for the military. According to the Congressional Budget Office:
Educational benefits have been shown to raise the number of military recruits. Based on an analysis of the existing literature, CBO estimates that a 10 percent increase in educational benefits would result in an increase of about 1 percent in high-quality recruits. On that basis, CBO calculates that raising the educational benefits as proposed in S. 22 would result in a 16 percent increase in recruits...Literature on the effects of educational benefits on retention suggest that every $10,000 increase in educational benefits yields a reduction in retention of slightly more than 1 percentage point. CBO estimates that S. 22 (as modified) would more than double the present value of educational benefits for servicemembers at the first reenlistment point—from about $40,000 to over $90,000—implying a 16 percent decline in the reenlistment rate, from about 42 percent to about 36 percent.

Second, it would cost $52 billion over ten years in mandatory spending. In a case such as this, the monetary value doesn't solely imply whether it should or shouldn't become law. Obviously, it's a larger financial commitment from the government, but when the money is put on auto-pilot that's a concern. This bill would be the largest entitlement increase since Medicare Part D. Mandatory spending is already projected to grow at an alarming rate in the coming decades so adding a program with no mechanism to control growth is somewhat alarming.

Finally, this is not an "emergency" and shouldn't be tabled with war supplemental spending. Administration officials thought the war in Iraq would be short and relatively inexpensive. Originally estimating $50-$60 billion for the Iraq War, the Bush Administration planned the money would be budgeted as an emergency since it wouldn't be a reoccurring requirement. However, the war has now cost over a half a trillion dollars but hasn't changed how the war is budgeted even though its costs can easily be foreseen. This is problematic in itself, but to further include an entitlement program like the new GI bill within the emergency spending to avoid paygo rules and an outright vote on the floor is wrong. These are planned expenses that should be budgeted for.

While it's difficult to argue against more benefits for our veterans (as they certainly need them), the current process for passing this bill must be reconsidered. The bills effect on our current military size, its future unchecked growth, and its attachment to a emergency spending bill make it rough to swallow.

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