Monday, November 3, 2008

The Road To Victory

Good look at the numbers games in 10th District:
Hackett won his Republican primary battle by sweeping in much of the southwestern portion of the district, winning Lycoming, Union and Snyder counties by more than 2,100 votes in an election decided by about 3,000 votes.

Assuming a 45 percent to 55 percent turnout on Election Day among registered voters district-wide — a conservative estimate, some analysts say, given the attention to presidential campaigns — about 194,000 to 237,000 people will vote in the 10th District. Combined, all counties, excluding Lackawanna and Luzerne, will see between 145,000 to 180,000 people vote. If Carney sweeps out of Luzerne and Lackawanna counties with a significant lead (he beat Sherwood by nearly 13,500 votes in those counties), Hackett will need to make significant ground in Snyder and Bradford, where Republicans double registered Democrats. That kind of lead in Luzerne and Lackawanna counties still might be too difficult for Hackett to overcome. Keeping with a 45 percent to 55 percent turnout ratio, there would be about 28,000 to 34,000 voters in Bradford and Snyder counties combined on Election Day. Even if Hackett wins 60 percent of the vote in those counties — a significant margin — he would gain 5,600 to 6,900 votes. In other words, any margin Carney pulls in Luzerne or Lackawanna counties has to be buffeted by Republican counties out west for Hackett to win.

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