Thursday, November 6, 2008

Reelection

On Tuesday, Chris Carney won his reelection bid convincingly against Chris Hackett. This was a district that many pundits had considered to be a "toss-up" early on and one of the few seats the Republican Party hoped to steal.

Based on early reports on Election Day, Chris Hackett was expecting record rural turnout which his campaign believed would work to his benefit. Obviously, in a district were Republicans outnumber Democrats by almost 40,000 registered voters, higher turnout would theoretically work to Hackett's advantage.

Hackett's campaign was correct that more voters turned out in the district--in fact, almost 75,000 more voted in the congressional race--but the results didn't break his way. It seems the consensus going in was that Lackawanna and Luzerne would go to Carney, but the majorities he received there would need to be offset by success in the western part of the district where Hackett had fared well in the primary.

Surprisingly, Carney actually underperformed in Luzerne based on his 2006 percentage, but pounded Hackett in Lackawanna. It was his success throughout the rest of the district that sealed the deal.

For instance, in Wayne County voter turnout exceeded 71%. This was a district that Sherwood won in 2006, yet Carney was able to steal. Not only does this likely reflect the increased Democrat registration throughout the district, but also that a "Republicans For Carney" contingent existed and helped his reelection bid.

In fact, if you look at the elections numbers compared with Carney's original bid, you can see why he was so successful. Not only did he expand his majorities in counties that he won in 2006, but he also stole all but one county from the GOP. In this county (Snyder), Hackett was able to hold it, but made no gains in building on Sherwood's proportion.

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OVERALL:
Carney--56.4% (159,072)
Hackett--43.6% (123,065)

2006
Carney--52.9% (110,115)
Sherwood--47.1% (97,862)

BY COUNTY:

Bradford County
Carney--51.8%
Hackett--48.2%

2006
Carney--46.7%
Sherwood--53.3%

Lackawanna County
Carney--69.3%
Hackett--30.7%

2006
Carney--62.9%
Sherwood--37.1%

Luzerne County
Carney--60.1%
Hackett--39.9%

2006
Carney--60.2%
Sherwood--39.8%

Lycoming County

Carney--50.9%
Hackett--49.1%

2006
Carney--49.1%
Sherwood--51.0%

Montour County

Carney--53.6%
Hackett--46.4%

2006
Carney--54.2%
Sherwood--45.8%

Northumberland County
Carney--56.8%
Hackett--43.2%

2006
Carney--56.1%
Sherwood--43.9%

Pike County
Carney--51.9%
Hackett--48.1%

2006
Carney--52.2%
Sherwood--47.8%

Snyder County
Carney--43.5%
Hackett--56.5%

2006
Carney--43.5%
Sherwood--56.5%

Sullivan County
Carney--55.3%
Hackett--44.7%

2006
Carney--50.2%
Sherwood--49.8%

Susquehanna County
Carney--59.3%
Hackett--40.7%

2006
Carney--49.7%
Sherwood--50.3%

Tioga County
Carney--55.0%
Hackett--45.0%

2006
Carney--30.0%
Sherwood--70.0%

Union County
Carney--50.5%
Hackett--49.5%

2006
Carney--48.8%
Sherwood--51.2%

Wayne County

Carney--51.7%
Hackett--48.3%

2006
Carney--48.5%
Sherwood--51.5%

Wyoming County
Carney--58.8%
Hackett--41.2%

2006
Carney--42.3%
Sherwood--57.7%

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Carney's staff credited his town-hall meetings throughout the district as a big reason for his success noting he even held a meeting in Tioga County which only has one municipality in the 10th District
(only 60 total votes on Tuesday) .

Carney stated he looks forward to an ambitious second-term:
"I am anxiously awaiting our next term in Congress, where we can tackle the costs of health care, explore alternative energy and work toward energy independence, fight for more federal funding and jobs for our region, and continue to push for more middle class tax cuts. Working together, I know we can make this happen. To the voters of the 10th district, thank you again for this opportunity to be your Member of Congress."