Reelection

On Tuesday, Chris Carney won his reelection bid convincingly against Chris Hackett. This was a district that many pundits had considered to be a "toss-up" early on and one of the few seats the Republican Party hoped to steal.

Based on early reports on Election Day, Chris Hackett was expecting record rural turnout which his campaign believed would work to his benefit. Obviously, in a district were Republicans outnumber Democrats by almost 40,000 registered voters, higher turnout would theoretically work to Hackett's advantage.

Hackett's campaign was correct that more voters turned out in the district--in fact, almost 75,000 more voted in the congressional race--but the results didn't break his way. It seems the consensus going in was that Lackawanna and Luzerne would go to Carney, but the majorities he received there would need to be offset by success in the western part of the district where Hackett had fared well in the primary.

Surprisingly, Carney actually underperformed in Luzerne based on his 2006 percentage, but pounded Hackett in Lackawanna. It was his success throughout the rest of the district that sealed the deal.

For instance, in Wayne County voter turnout exceeded 71%. This was a district that Sherwood won in 2006, yet Carney was able to steal. Not only does this likely reflect the increased Democrat registration throughout the district, but also that a "Republicans For Carney" contingent existed and helped his reelection bid.

In fact, if you look at the elections numbers compared with Carney's original bid, you can see why he was so successful. Not only did he expand his majorities in counties that he won in 2006, but he also stole all but one county from the GOP. In this county (Snyder), Hackett was able to hold it, but made no gains in building on Sherwood's proportion.

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OVERALL:
Carney--56.4% (159,072)
Hackett--43.6% (123,065)

2006
Carney--52.9% (110,115)
Sherwood--47.1% (97,862)

BY COUNTY:

Bradford County
Carney--51.8%
Hackett--48.2%

2006
Carney--46.7%
Sherwood--53.3%

Lackawanna County
Carney--69.3%
Hackett--30.7%

2006
Carney--62.9%
Sherwood--37.1%

Luzerne County
Carney--60.1%
Hackett--39.9%

2006
Carney--60.2%
Sherwood--39.8%

Lycoming County
Carney--50.9%
Hackett--49.1%

2006
Carney--49.1%
Sherwood--51.0%

Montour County
Carney--53.6%
Hackett--46.4%

2006
Carney--54.2%
Sherwood--45.8%

Northumberland County
Carney--56.8%
Hackett--43.2%

2006
Carney--56.1%
Sherwood--43.9%

Pike County
Carney--51.9%
Hackett--48.1%

2006
Carney--52.2%
Sherwood--47.8%

Snyder County
Carney--43.5%
Hackett--56.5%

2006
Carney--43.5%
Sherwood--56.5%

Sullivan County
Carney--55.3%
Hackett--44.7%

2006
Carney--50.2%
Sherwood--49.8%

Susquehanna County
Carney--59.3%
Hackett--40.7%

2006
Carney--49.7%
Sherwood--50.3%

Tioga County
Carney--55.0%
Hackett--45.0%

2006
Carney--30.0%
Sherwood--70.0%

Union County
Carney--50.5%
Hackett--49.5%

2006
Carney--48.8%
Sherwood--51.2%

Wayne County
Carney--51.7%
Hackett--48.3%

2006
Carney--48.5%
Sherwood--51.5%

Wyoming County
Carney--58.8%
Hackett--41.2%

2006
Carney--42.3%
Sherwood--57.7%

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Carney's staff credited his town-hall meetings throughout the district as a big reason for his success noting he even held a meeting in Tioga County which only has one municipality in the 10th District (only 60 total votes on Tuesday) .

Carney stated he looks forward to an ambitious second-term:

"I am anxiously awaiting our next term in Congress, where we can tackle the costs of health care, explore alternative energy and work toward energy independence, fight for more federal funding and jobs for our region, and continue to push for more middle class tax cuts. Working together, I know we can make this happen. To the voters of the 10th district, thank you again for this opportunity to be your Member of Congress."

The Road To Victory

Good look at the numbers games in 10th District:

Hackett won his Republican primary battle by sweeping in much of the southwestern portion of the district, winning Lycoming, Union and Snyder counties by more than 2,100 votes in an election decided by about 3,000 votes.
....

Assuming a 45 percent to 55 percent turnout on Election Day among registered voters district-wide — a conservative estimate, some analysts say, given the attention to presidential campaigns — about 194,000 to 237,000 people will vote in the 10th District. Combined, all counties, excluding Lackawanna and Luzerne, will see between 145,000 to 180,000 people vote. If Carney sweeps out of Luzerne and Lackawanna counties with a significant lead (he beat Sherwood by nearly 13,500 votes in those counties), Hackett will need to make significant ground in Snyder and Bradford, where Republicans double registered Democrats. That kind of lead in Luzerne and Lackawanna counties still might be too difficult for Hackett to overcome. Keeping with a 45 percent to 55 percent turnout ratio, there would be about 28,000 to 34,000 voters in Bradford and Snyder counties combined on Election Day. Even if Hackett wins 60 percent of the vote in those counties — a significant margin — he would gain 5,600 to 6,900 votes. In other words, any margin Carney pulls in Luzerne or Lackawanna counties has to be buffeted by Republican counties out west for Hackett to win.

Earmark Benefits

In last week's debate, Chris Hackett charged that Chris Carney received more than $100,000 in campaign contributions from companies that he secured earmarks for.

The Citizen's Voice investigated the claim and found that Carney actually received slightly less--$80,000--from those who received earmarks.

The $100,000 figure that Hackett used was much more generous since it included contributions from faculty at colleges where Carney received earmarks for as well as employees of companies that got the funds.

Carney's campaign manager Vincent Rongione responded by saying, "That is a very serious accusation. To accuse a government official of an illegal activity without proof is unbelievable. There is very little, if any, evidence at all to even try to make such a claim."

Mark Harris argued that regardless of the legality, "Congressman Carney directly benefitted from those earmarks by getting campaign contributions."