New Poll

The Lycoming College Polling Institute released its first poll for the 10th Congressional District.

The poll sampled 460 likely voters and found that Chris Carney (45.7%) holds a ten-point lead over Chris Hackett (36.1%). The margin of error for the poll being 4.6%. The Institute's Director Jonathan Williamson added that Carney's efforts to build support among Republicans and Independents appears to be paying dividends.

Just looking through some of the polls that Lycoming put out in the 2006 race:

September '06 (804 likely voters):
Carney -- 46.7%
Sherwood -- 38.2%
Undecided -- 14.7%
*Margin of Error -- 3.5%

October '06 (643 likely voters):
Carney -- 47%
Sherwood -- 38.4%
Undecided -- 14.6%
*Margin of Error -- 3.9%

Of course, the '06 race turned out to break 53% to 47% in Carney's direction. Therefore, the two polls that Lycoming put out before the race were statistically correct in their victory margin for Carney (assuming the margin of error).

It has to frustrating for the Hackett campaign to square this poll with the Survey USA poll which showed a statistical dead heat in the race. Essentially a month after that poll, with further expectiations building for a Republican upset, the new Lycoming poll shows Hackett to be in the same statistical position that Sherwood was in two-years ago.

However, two points to keep in mind. First, Don Sherwood was not able to make up any ground on Carney largely due to self-inflicted wounds (i.e. his affair and abuse allegations) whereas Hackett is relatively new to the political scene and has wild card ability to change the race dynamics in the next month.

Second point of consideration, the number of undecided voters is larger in this poll than it was in 2006. Mark Harris is correct in noting that Hackett still has five weeks until election day to get his message out, and it could be that those five weeks that make or break the Hackett campaign. Assuming the polling percentages are firm, Hackett would need to woo 8 out of every 10 undecided voters in the district. May seem like a tall order, but in a district that is relatively heavy in the Republican department, you have to appreciate--if not like--your campaign odds.