Playing To The Demographics

Lou Barletta's recent statement against private accounts was surprising if for no other reason than it was a plan that he had previously endorsed. Not only did Barletta reconsider his priority to personal accounts, but it almost seemed as if he was denouncing them. In his speech on Tuesday, Barletta said:

"I don't support privatizing Social Security and anyone who says I do is lying. I want to make it absolutely clear: I am against privatizing Social Security. I am against personal savings accounts. How much clearer can I be? The public has said it is against personal accounts so lets take that idea off the table."

That's not language from a typical policy speech. It was almost as if Barletta was denying something slanderous. and addressing a possible liability. Ironically, with the campaign just beginning, it was Barletta who hit Kanjorski on the Social Security issue first.

The move by Barletta appears rooted in electoral politics.

Pennsylvania is an "older" state to begin with. It ranks 3rd in the nation in regards to percentage of the population age 65 and over with only Florida (16.8%) and West Virginia (15.3%) ahead. Pennsylvania (15.1%) has close to 2 million seniors, and is 3% above the national average. Furthermore, there is only one Congressional district within Pennsylvania below the national average.

Nominally, the 11th Congressional District--Rep. Kanjorski's district--has the second most seniors according to the 2006 American Community Survey. 4% greater than the national average.

In addition, Pennsylvania has a strong elderly voter turnout. If you look at the exit polls from 2006, this is well documented. For instance, in the governor's race and senate race, 20% of those who voted were of age 65 or older. This is 5% greater than their estimated percentage of the population, and this in a state with a larger amount of seniors.

Therefore, it would politically make sense for Barletta to distance himself from the privatizers. Those favoring private accounts would directly alter the scheme that seniors are currently taking advantage of. Hence, it wouldn't be a popular choice for Barletta to favor such drastic changes. Even though you may not agree with his decision, the logic behind it is quite apparent. To better his chances, Barletta went even further on the issue by promising not to raise the retirement age or cut benefits.

It seems that by limiting the gap between he and Kanjorski on this issue, Barletta avoids a distinction that Kanjorski could have exploited in the fall.

District	Over age 65	As a % of district
1	69,546	10.9
2	82,981	14.9
3	97,005	15.0
4	110,363	17.0
5	101,383	15.9
6	92,267	13.2
7	95,059	14.2
8	89,648	13.4
9	107,825	16.3
10	107,018	16.5
11	111,475	16.4
12	113,695	18.0
13	98,588	14.6
14	96,914	16.6
15	103,121	14.7
16	93,091	13.6
17	101,168	15.3
18	114,776	17.7
19	97,311	13.9

On A Sad Note

Uni-Mart convenience stores filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. If you've ever lived or visited Pennsylvania, you're probably well aware of this store. Uni-Mart is a chain that is primarily scattered throughout Pennsylvania with a few other locations in Maryland, New York, and Delaware.

PA Budget

There's been some back and forth going on between rank-and-file representatives in the Pennsylvania House and Democratic leadership on the budget.

Representative Garth Everett (R-Muncy) charged that members were not provided with an ample opportunity to influence budgetary decisions. Specifically, Rep. Everett took aim at Appropriations Chairman Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia). Rep. Evans has allowed the budget to stall in committee so that there will be less time to amend the budget and discuss changes before the June 30th deadline. Everett threatened to introduce a discharge resolution to bring the bill to the floor.

Rep. Evans fired back stating that this particular process has been more open than prior sessions and has included hearings open to all members and meetings in various locations across the state. In addition, Evans' staff stated that Everett was simply playing politics with the issue and had amply time to amend the budget since its been posted publicly.

However, Evans has previously acknowledged that there is a "public-side" and a "private-side" to the budget process. Evans referred to the private side of the debate as where the real decisions are made because, according to Evans:

"You got 253 people in that process and the reality of it is we're no different than your household if you tried to make a decision about the budget."

Last I checked, households do encourage input from all family members affected by the decisions and make it a "public" process.

Dealing in private allows Evans to bring more money back to Philadephia--not surprising. However, it's unfair then for Evans to turn around an criticize a representative for attempting to express the interest of his rural constituency.

For Rep. Evans to say that Everett is "playing politics" with the issue is somewhat ironic given the nature of Evans' own dealings as chairman.

Clueless

Reading the Editorial in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette today is enough to drive someone off the deep end. The Editorial makes it seem like leasing the turnpike is a radical option which threatens our security. Furthermore, they suggest tolling I-80 as a sensible alternative:

While initial estimates suggest tolling I-80 would bring less money to state coffers each year than leasing the turnpike, Pennsylvania would be giving up a plan whose revenue to the state would grow over time with one that doesn't. In addition, the public interest in retaining the turnpike is bigger than both annual estimates.

It's not just about how much revenue the government can bring in. The tolls put on I-80 under Act 44 would be the highest in the nation. Those costs would be passed along to Pennsylvania consumers in the price they pay for goods at their marketplace as truckers are forced to pay more to deliver them. In addition, more Pennsylvania citizens would be subjected to these user fees.

To an area of the country that's already struggling economically with business, tolling I-80 would also have substantial consequences. Businesses would relocate and behavior would be changed as a result. This makes Pennsylvania all that less competitive in the marketplace.

The editorial's also attempts to pull on the heartstrings:

Governments shouldn't sell their core responsibilities to the highest bidder. Trading away assets has the potential over the long haul to hurt the public. First a turnpike, then maybe a key city road or bridge.

Get a grip. One of the main reasons Pennsylvania should lease the turnpike is to free up revenue and devote more resources to transportation. Such as the 1,100 bridges that need to be addressed.

Leasing the turnpike would actually prove to be beneficial to the public.

Long Way To Go

Rep. Paul Kanjorski is strongly opposed to any attempt to privatize Social Security. In a somewhat surprising move, challenger Lou Barletta released a statement on Social Security essentially agreeing with Kanjorski.

Kanjorski is looking to expand Social Security benefits by increasing cost-of-living-adjustments and Barletta is ruling out most approaches to fixing it: privatization, an increase in the retirement age, and any benefits reductions.

Unfortunately, Barletta's dedication to fixing Social Security may be in rhetoric only. Assuming Barletta's opposition to benefit reductions also means he's ruling out a price indexing (which is tomorrow's benefits being able to buy the same basket of goods as today's benefits--this is different from the current wage indexing) of benefits, he's limiting his options for fixing Social Security. Strictly speaking, he must be looking to fix it through the revenue side of the equation.

In 2017, Social Security will begin to run cash deficits--spending more money than it takes in. Currently, the system is running surpluses since more people are paying into the system than are taking benefits. Once the boomers begin their wave of retirement that equation changes. The excess revenue is being used to pay other government bills and an IOU is left in the Trust Fund which is reflected in the "intragovernmental debt" as money the government owes to itself.

Thus in 2017, Social Security will begin to redeem securities in the Trust Fund to pay for the extra benefits. The Social Security Trust Fund bonds will have to be "redeemed" through the government's general revenue stream. This will mean less funding to pay for other priorities and a larger deficit if nothing is changed.

Therefore, if Barletta wants to ensure Social Security's long-term solvency, he must be considering an increase in the payroll tax. Simply telling the government to keep cash in the current Social Security Trust Fund will do little to alleviate the long-term obligations or produce solvency.

It's frustrating to see Barletta take options "off the table" this early in the campaign. Other proposals like what was offered from Fred Thompson or Republican Paul Ryan have successfully incorporated some of these non-starters for Barletta without drastically changing the nature of the program.

Crossfire

Robert Novak discusses Rep. Chris Carney's political positioning. A few excerpts:

What is clear is that Blue Dogs [Rep. Chris Carney] are neither conservatives nor independents. They only campaign that way. They are hoping that in November they can ride through the current political ethos for at least another two years...

The Blue Dogs say remarkably little on the House floor. Representing shaky districts (except for Charlie Wilson), they don’t want to offer anything that will come back to bite them...

Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.), who defeated the scandal-tainted Rep. Don Sherwood (R-Pa.) in a Republican district, faces a tough Republican challenge from a new candidate this year. But that has not stopped him from voting with the Democrats on all of the eight issues except for the House version of the FISA bill that did not provide immunity for telephone companies.

Just How Bad Its Gotten

Governor Ed Rendell will allow those gas stations with non-digital fuel dispensers to display the prices for a 1/2 gallon of gas since their pumps cannot display prices above $3.99/gallon.

Fall Preview

Op-Ed from Chris Hackett takes aim at Rep. Chris Carney's stance on the farm bill:

There's a growing recognition among reform-minded Republicans and Democrats that the system is broken. So far, that reform position is still in the minority in Washington. This is an issue that cuts to the heart of the problems in our country today. As families in our area struggle with high gas prices, high food prices, and a shaky economy, the last thing Washington should be doing is giving new subsidies to race horse owners and sugar industry giants. Should I be fortunate enough to be sent to Congress from Pennsylvania's Tenth District, you can be sure that I will add to the ranks of reformers opposing the status quo Washington spending game while fighting for what our local farmers really need in a Farm Bill.

Stretching the Facts

A video of Rep. Paul Kanjorski recently surfaced from a town hall meeting. In the video, Kanjorski discusses the Democrats campaign promises to end the Iraq War and misleading voters into believing this could actually happen when everyone knew it wasn't possible. He stated:

"I'll tell you my impression. We really in this last election, when I say we...the democrats, I think pushed it as far as we can to the end of the fleet, didn't say it, but we implied it. That if we won the Congressional elections, we could stop the war. Now anybody was a good student of Government would know that wasn't true. But you know, the temptation to want to win back the Congress, we sort of stretched the facts...and people ate it up."

Lou Barletta took issue with Kanjorski's comments saying:

"He has indicted himself and the entire Democratic Party by admitting to purposely deceive the American people in order to take control of Congress."

Anything But That!

Two Pennsylvania state senators--Sens. Joe Scarnati and Sean Logan--have decided to buck the leasing of the Turnpike. Claiming overly optimistic financial scenarios, the two have decided not to support the lease as it currently stands.

Senator Scarnati even proposed an alternative plan. Scarnati's plan would rely on cutting $25 million worth of Turnpike "inefficienicies." The plan would also increase tolls and require local governments to pay 20 percent more on mass transit subsidies.

Essentially, Scarnati is relying on his own optimistic assumptions for cutting "inefficiencies" and the tax payers to pick up the rest of the tab at the local level. All that so the Turnpike Commission can remain in tact.

Contrast that with today's Editorial in the Williamsport Sun-Gazette:

Foes of plans to lease and privatize management of 500 miles of the Pennsylvania Turnpike will claim to be unimpressed by the high bid of $12.8 billion...

The bid could produce $1.1 billion in the first 10 years of the lease for roads, bridges and mass transit. That’s money that the state of Pennsylvania and its taxpayers won’t have to come up with to pay for necessary upgrades to the highway system.

Consider those prospects against the possibility of tolls on Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania that are projected to generate $500 million a year....

This proposal – now in the hands of the Legislature – would help Pennsylvania catch up regarding its highway system without doing damage to the fiscal condition of the rest of the state budget and the taxpayers who pay for that budget. Anyone who can’t see that isn’t paying attention or just doesn’t want to deal honestly with the cold, hard numbers.

We call on the region’s representatives in the state House and Senate to lead the support of this proposal.