More Endorsements

More editorial endorsements for Chris Carney from over the weekend. The Daily Item endorsed him on Saturday:

However, since gaining office two years ago, Congressman Chris Carney has faithfully represented the traditional values embodied by 10th District voters, and for that, The Daily Item is endorsing Carney in his bid for re-election.

The Times Leader followed suite:

CHRIS CARNEY, who has a background in counter-terrorism work, displays a command of many of the most important issues facing the nation.

That knowledge, combined with Carney’s knack for voting independently rather than solely along party lines, makes him the better choice to serve the people of the 10th U.S. Congressional District, which encompasses much of Northeastern Pennsylvania including Wyoming County and Luzerne County’s Back Mountain area.

For their endorsement in the 11th District, the Times Leader went with Lou Barletta over Paul Kanjorski:

SEND LOU Barletta to Washington, D.C.

Although some people try to pigeonhole Barletta as a single-issue candidate, the Hazleton mayor who gained nationwide attention for his city’s attempted crackdown on illegal immigrants offers fresh ideas on a host of issues.

Party Ads

The political parties are up with new ads in the 11th District.

The two ads have one common theme: they both focus on Paul Kanjorski.

NRCC's "Kick Out Kanjorski":



DCCC's "Paul Kanjorski Measures Up For Pennsylvania Families"

In The 11th

Lou Barletta one of four featured candidates in Ken Rudin's "Political Junkie" column over on NPR:

Now on to Pennsylvania. Lou Barletta, the mayor of Hazleton, is one of the few Republican challengers to Democratic incumbents who are given a shot on Nov. 4. There are several factors that give Barletta hope. The incumbent, Paul Kanjorski, has been under fire for his role in obtaining millions of dollars in federal grants for a company owned by his relatives, a role that was investigated by the FBI. This issue has been around for years, and in fact, it was one of the things Barletta used when he ran against Kanjorski six years ago.

He lost by 13 points, but it was the 71-year-old incumbent's closest race since he was first elected in 1984. Another issue is Kanjorski's role as the second-ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee and his vote for the unpopular $700 billion bailout/rescue bill of Wall Street. Barletta has been hitting the issue hard.

Barletta is also a nationally known crusader against illegal immigration, a position that has made him extremely popular in Hazleton. A Republican, Barletta also had the nomination of the Democratic Party when he was re-elected in 2007. Two years ago, Hazleton became the first town in the country to ban employers from hiring illegal immigrants, though that ordinance was overturned by a federal judge. An appeals court hearing is expected at the end of the month.

Also, the Pindell Report is now ready to say the race "Leans Republican". James Pindell's decision to move the race to the GOP side of the board has been influenced by Kanjorski losing control of his image and the failure of money in the race to impact polling numbers.

No Forum

Paul Kanjorski backed out of a forum yesterday with Lou Barletta which has caused some speculation into the reason(s) behind Kanjorski bailing at the last minute.

The two primary reasons being mentioned:

1. Kanjorski didn't like the combative release Barletta put our earlier in the day
2. Kanjorski was upset that the NAACP flier did not include him

In regards to reason #2, apparently the Monroe County NAACP was one of the sponsors of the forum between Barletta and Kanjorski and put out a flier featuring Barletta's picture with no Kanjorski image. However, the NAACP claims that Kanjorski was never firmly committed to the event and added his image to a second flier after he agreed. Then on Wednesday, Kanjorski changed his mind again leaving the forum without its billed speaker.

The Kanjorski campaign acknowledged that the flier was problematic, yet the Congressman made every attempt possible to attend the event. The campaign claims that his prior committment speaking to Obama volunteers didn't allow him to attend.

The Barletta campaign issued a stinging press release after Kanjorski backed out:

"What's the difference between Paul Kanjorski and the Cowardly Lion? Answer: the Cowardly Lion didn't funnel 10 million taxpayer dollars to his family's business.

"This is just another example of Paul Kanjorski's disrespect for the people of northeastern Pennsylvania. He takes the voters for granted and worse yet he takes their money for his cars and his gas, and to fund his family's bankrupt business. The congressman's actions speak for themselves."

Whichever side you choose to believe, pulling out 10 minutes before a scheduled event is never a good thing.

Third Quarter Fundraising

The third quarter (July 1-September 30) campaign finance data is now available from the FEC.

In the 10th District, Chris Carney raised $381,151 during those three months. Over that same period, Carney spent $950,049 and ended the quarter with $581,198.

Chris Hackett raised slightly less with $351,561 while spending $591,520 and ending with $330,673 cash on hand.

In the 11th District, Paul Kanjorski spent $1.375 million for the quarter, raised $505,000, and ended with $1.35 million in cash on hand.

Barletta spent close to $480,000, raised $409,000, and ended with $250,000 on hand.

In independent expenditures, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has made the two seats a priority as they've spent $711,000 on Carney's seat and $857,000 for Kanjorski's seat. Both of which are in the Top 25 seat allocations for the Committee.

Some substantial cash disadvantages for the GOP challengers in these districts coming down the stretch.

Don't Forget Paul

While yesterday's event in Scranton with Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden was focused on Barack Obama's presidential bid, local races managed to weave their way into the discourse.

During his portion of the presentation, former President Clinton highlighted Paul Kanjorski's tough race with Lou Barletta.

From the Times Leader:

President Clinton found time to ask the crowd to support U.S. Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski, who is facing a challenge from Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta in the 11th Congressional District.

“Folks, Paul Kanjorski’s got a tough race,” he said. “He’s got a tough race because some people in his district believe that illegal immigration is a bigger cause of their economic problems than President Bush’s economic policies. I got news for them and I’ve got news for you – you need to help him get re-elected.”

Poll Part II

The DCCC released its second poll showing Paul Kanjorski ahead of Lou Barletta by 8 points. This poll had Kanjorski polling at 47% and Barletta at 39%.

Of course, this directly contradicts Lou Barletta's new poll this week.

From PolitickerPA:

But once again, the DCCC released almost no details about the poll, making any assessment of its veracity difficult.

In both cases, the DCCC polls were released after surveys showed Kanjorski trailing Barletta. In September, a Franklin & Marshall College poll had Kanjorski trailing Barletta by nine points, prompting release of a DCCC poll claiming a Kanjorski lead of the same margin.

This week, the DCCC poll came on the heels of an internal Barletta poll showing Kanjorski trailing by 8 points.

Funny polling on the part of the DCCC? All sounds like a lame attempt by Kanjorski to rebut every poll by Barletta, but you be the judge.

New Barletta Poll

Lou Barletta released another internal poll showing him ahead of Paul Kanjorski.

Oct. 2, 2008 (400 likely voters)
-Barletta -- 47%
-Kanjorski -- 39%
-Undecided -- 13%
*Margin of Error -- 4.9%

Ed Mitchell responded by saying, "While Lou Barletta viciously and personally attacks Paul Kanjorski, the congressman has been doing his job and trying to fix the economy – an economy that is the way it is because Barletta worked twice to elect George Bush and still supports his disastrous policies that have led to today’s economic meltdown. A vote for Barletta is a vote for continuing these bankrupt Bush policies: tax cuts for the wealthy, outsourcing our jobs overseas and no tax on the windfall profits of oil companies."

The Bailout Effect

Politico has an article up today entitled "The Risks of Being A Yes Man," in reference to some members in competitive seats voting in the affirmative for the bailout.

One of the eight men on their list is Paul Kanjorski:

Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski (D-Pa.)

Kanjorski is in perhaps his toughest race since winning his seat in 1984, troubled by what Real Clear Politics called “ethics issues, questionable earmarks and an unremarkable record.”

And no matter what he did, he stood to lose, at least in political terms. As chairman of the House subcommittee on capital markets — and one who had taken a lead role in negotiating the proposed Wall Street bailout — Kanjor­ski couldn’t exactly vote no without risking widespread derision.

But by voting yes, he exposed himself to criticism from his Republican opponent, Hazleton, Pa., Mayor Lou Barletta, who indicated Monday that he would not have voted for the rescue bill.

The one saving grace for Kanjorski may be Barletta’s seemingly contradictory approach to the bailout issue. On Sept. 25, Barletta appeared to support a bailout in comments to a Scranton Times-Tribune reporter.

“At least we know where Congressman Kanjorski stands,” said Kanjorski campaign spokesman Ed Mitchell. “We never know where Mr. Barletta stands; he plays to the crowd.”

Vote Reaction

I'm sure you have heard enough, but some reaction to yesterday's bailout vote:

• Carney: "I could not vote for a measure that bails out years of unmitigated Wall Street failings at the expense of our hardworking taxpayers. This bailout bill does not provide any source of revenue to pay for its enormous costs, which is not fair to our middle class families that have played by the rules, but are struggling to keep up with the rising costs of their daily expenses. Where is their bailout? It allows the payment of regular inflated salaries to executives of bailed-out firms. Any executive that feels his bonus is too low can ask his firm for a multi-million dollar increase in base salary that is simply unacceptable to the taxpayers who are shouldering the burden of paying for Wall Street’s greed. This type of tough legislation requires genuine oversight in the process. As it stands now, the oversight board can make suggestions for improvements, but has no means to enforce them. We need tough regulations with real teeth. We need to assess the current situation and thoughtfully consider long-term solutions to stabilize our economy, not pass hurried legislation. It might calm the markets today, but the underlying problems remain. We cannot allow Wall Street to borrow its way out of the current fiscal mess. I could not support this legislation, nor could I support measures to allow Congress to adjourn when it is clear that more work needs to be done to ensure the stability of our nation’s economy."

• Peterson: "Having served in the United State Congress for six terms - 12 years - this was one of the toughest votes in my legislative career. My decision to cast a vote in favor of this economic rescue package was a decision that I wrestled with for days, and today reluctantly supported... The option to support or oppose this legislation in my eyes is the difference between possible success and driving further into a recession. While this legislation did not guarantee stabilization of the financial markets, it was the only solution on the table to address a looming crisis....Let me be clear, the legislation that was voted on today (Monday) was not the Bush Administration proposal, rather, it was a bipartisan compromise that protected the taxpayer by eliminating excessive executive pay and so called golden parachutes and was designed so that Wall Street, not Main Street, would be responsible for any potential losses."

• Kanjorski: "Today the House of Representatives voted down the economic recovery plan that the President, Treasury Secretary Paulson, and bipartisan leaders in both the House and Senate told us was necessary to avoid the collapse of the American economy. People must understand that we are not bailing out Wall Street; we are rescuing the middle class on Main Street. Congress must get this job done no matter how long it takes. It is my hope that over the next several days we can all work together to agree upon a plan which puts the interests of average Americans first, as their retirement savings, pensions, and investments continue to dwindle by the minute. Already I have spoken with local businesspeople who are having difficulty obtaining credit to cover their payrolls or borrow money to expand their operations. Unless we unfreeze our credit markets very quickly, these problems will only increase. I will work for as long as it takes until we are able to reach a majority to enact legislation which both protects American taxpayers and stabilizes the American economy."

The challengers:

• Barletta: "I like that the bailout bill included some punishment for failed CEOs. But the bailout bill doesn’t include a clear call for an independent investigation into why this happened, which is what I called for from the beginning."

• Hackett: "[While glad Carney voted against it] But let’s not be fooled; Chris Carney has voted for numerous corporate welfare handouts, including $25 billion for the auto industry just last week. I wish Carney would side with taxpayers when the public spotlight isn’t on him and an election is right around the corner."

[As a side note, The Hill had an interesting article yesterday--which specifically referred to the 10th District--on how challengers in competitive races (as well as open-seat candidates) were quick and early to offer up hard "no's" on the financial rescue measures while vulnerable incumbents were forced to ponder their vote, but eventually succumbed to the political pressure. ]

Second Scandal Is The Charm

Republicans are going back after local lawmakers for their connections to Charlie Rangel.

Back in July, the NRCC targeted Democrats who had received money from Charlie Rangel after the story broke regarding his four rent stabilized apartments. Chris Hackett attempted to highlight the scandel further by issuing a press release using Chris Carney's hypocracy against him (i.e. Carney's 2006 call for Sherwood to return money he received from Tom Delay).

Now, a new Charlie Rangel scandal is brewing due to his tax trouble and failure to disclose rental income coming from a Dominican Republic villa he owns.

The NRCC is back hammering the Rangel connections to Carney and Kanjorski.

Carney has received more $21,000 from Rangel's political PACs since 2006 while Kanjorski has received $14,000 this election cycle.

Ken Spain (Press Secretary for the NRCC) said, "When it comes to standing by corrupt politicians, it appears that Paul Kanjorski and Chris Carney have a lot in common. Even the liberal New York Times has called for Charlie Rangel to step down, but neither Kanjorski nor Carney is willing to give up the tens of thousands of dollars in cash that they have pocketed."

However, the Carney campaign responded by saying it will wait until it has more information. Vince Rongione (Carney campaign spokesman) stated, "We will not take any action, except to say that elected officials should be held to a higher standard and it is up to the voters in his district to decide."

The Kanjorski camp took a more offensive approach by citing Barletta's own dirty money from Ted Stevens, which it has previously drawn attention to.

The Palin Effect In PA

PolitickerPA reports some rejuvenated expectations coming from state GOP chair Bob Gleason:

Republicans nationally and in Pennsylvania tout the energy vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin has injected in the GOP base.

On Tuesday, it caused state party Chairman Bob Gleason to make a bold prediction: Republicans will win back "four or five" congressional seats in the Keystone State.

It seems Gleason explicitly referred to the 10th (Hackett over Carney), the 11th (Barletta over Kanjorski) and the 7th (Williams over Sestak).

I'm sure if Gleason is including Craig Williams over Sestak, he is also banking on Tom Manion over Patrick Murphy in the 8th.

Those four seats would deliver Gleason his prediction assuming they all come through.

However, Gleason doesn't expand on why--or at least the article doesn't mention his reasoning--the Palin pick has the potential to be such a game changer in Pennsylvania aside from the recent injection of energy into the base. It is hard to imagine renewed energy alone delivering those two seats in the Philly corner of the state.

Competitive Races

RealClearPolitics rates the congressional races in the 10th and 11th Districts among the top 25 most competitive races in the country:

Kanjorski vs. Barletta:

11. Pennsylvania 11 -- Kanjorski (D) -- Ethics issues, questionable earmarks and an unremarkable record, coupled with a near-celebrity opponent, put Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) atop national Republicans' target list. Kanjorski hasn't faced a real race in decades, and John McCain is likely to win the Scranton-based district, aiding Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R). It's one race in which the "change" mantra may benefit Republicans.

Carney vs. Hackett:

16. Pennsylvania 10 -- Carney (D): Rep. Christopher Carney represents a Northeast Pennsylvania district that gave President Bush 60% of the vote in 2004, and where Barack Obama did notably poorly in the state's April primary. That's not a recipe for success for a Democrat, especially one who won by challenging an incumbent with serious personal problems. Republicans are enthusiastic about businessman Chris Hackett (R), who won a competitive primary.

The Candidates and Education

Times Leader has an in-depth look at the candidates and the issue of education:

Paul Kanjorski

Democrat

11th Congressional District

• Supports an increased focus on math and science

• Favors improving early childhood education, expanding literacy programs through school library systems, and helping provide funding to modernize schools

• Supports (and co-sponsored) legislation to fund school modernization projects and improve student literacy

• Supports legislation (which he introduced) to address the credit crunch to help make sure that student loans are available

Lou Barletta

Republican

11th Congressional District

• Says the No Child Left Behind legislation had good intentions but said the bill is not working

• Favors a bipartisan solution to the education system

• Cites an innovative program used in the Hazleton Area School District called Partners in Education, which brings together school administrators, teachers and employers and teaches topics such as math and history as well as skills considered essential by local employers

Chris Carney

Democrat

10th Congressional District

• Says “teaching to the test is wrong”

• Supports (and authored) legislation that ensures students are evaluated for consecutive years rather than annually measuring entire grades

• Supports early childhood education such as Head Start, Reading is Fundamental and the Striving Readers Act

• Vows to fight to protect programs such as the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, which provides funds to states for the education of children with disabilities

Chris Hackett

Republican

10th Congressional District

• Will work to make college affordable for working families

• Favors local control over federal control and will oppose increased federal regulation and mandates on local schools

• Supports giving maximum opportunities to parents to choose the school that is best for their children, rather than having government dictate to parents which schools their children must attend

Barletta's First Television Ad

Lou Barletta paid for his first television time of the campaign season and will begin airing his new campaign ad today.



The ad is essentially the same piece that was put out in his first internet ad almost two months ago. However, the TV version is chopped down to 30 seconds with the tag line "I'm Lou Barletta and I approved this message" added to the end.

Barletta spent close to $50,000 to have the commercial aired 174 times on the four local networks: WNEP, WYOU, WBRE, & WOLF. Rep. Paul Kanjorski has already been up on television with a variety of spots.

Also up on Barletta's YouTube site was another just released Internet ad in which Barletta responds to Kanjorski's negative attacks and repeats his call for a change of leadership.

The brand-new Pindell Report from Politicker.com called the race a "Toss-Up" and ranked it at the seventh most competitive race in the country. Ed Mitchell from the Kanjorski camp denied the report was of an significance and claimed, "We’ve got Barletta on the run and that will be more evident in the next few days."

Other well regarded Pennsylvania pundits like Terry Madonna have resisted the urge to call the Barletta-Kanjorski campaign a "Toss-Up" due to Kanjorski's long record in the district.

Funny Polling

Lou Barletta is alleging that there is some funny phone "polling" going around his district that is too conveniently biased against him.

The calls, which Barletta explicitly referred to as "push polls," are designed to shape public opinion by disseminating negative information regarding one candidate while at the same time seeking to clarify or mask potential negatives about the opposing candidate.

These particular push polls sought to promulgate negative information by specifically discussing Barletta selling his business to a "convicted drug felon" and cutting back the police force while "blood rolled down the gutters of Hazleton."

Kanjorski campaign spokesman Ed Mitchell denied any involvement in the push polls and criticized the Barletta campaign for making an issue out of it. Mitchell even went further stating, "But Lou Barletta could at least act like a man and stop crying, whining and complaining every time someone calls him on his record."

It seems that the DCCC could likely be behind the polls. The polls originated out of Miami, Florida with a company called Sun Survey. The DCCC declined to say whether they were conducting their own survey survey. DCCC spokeswoman Carrie James said, "We’re not running a push poll. … It’s not ours … I don’t know anything about a cameraman." However, it could be as simple as the DCCC not viewing what they are doing as push polling and refusing to acknowledge it as such.

Barletta also got some more negative press thrown his way in a New York Times story today. The story cites an authority who regards Barletta's "inflammatory" anti-immigration rhetoric as a possible factor in the death of a illegal Mexican immigrant. Barletta responded in the story by saying: "It’s a tragedy what happened to that man. But I don’t believe our ordinance had anything to do with it. Every person is responsible for their own actions."

Has Kanjo Flipped On Tolling?

Lou Barletta challenged Paul Kanjorski's position on tolling I-80 yesterday. He put out a press release accusing Kanjorski of desperately trying to mislead voters on where he actually stands. The release contained previous statements from Kanjorski which demonstrated his support for tolling or lack of effort to ensure the interstate wasn't tolled.

From the release:

• Aug. 3, 2007: “I believe that the federal government should respect the decisions made by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.” Statement from Paul Kanjorski after the tolls were announced, www.kanjorski.house.gov
• Nov. 8, 2007: The Peterson-English Amendment to the Transportation Appropriations Bill would have stopped the tolling of Interstate 80. The bill was defeated. Paul Kanjorski had his chance to show his independence. What did he do? Did he demand a meeting with Leadership on this amendment? Did he ask Pennsylvania’s U.S. senators to support the amendment in conference committee? He did nothing. He did not fight for his constituents.
• Nov. 29, 2007: “Let’s do all the interstates. I think we’ll have to end up tolling 80, 81, 78 and 95.” Bloomsburg Press Enterprise story printed in the Pocono Record.

On Tuesday, Kanjorski submitted a letter of opposition for tolling I-80 to the Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration. The letter argued that tolls would burden Pennsylvania businesses and cited an '05 Pennsylvania Department of Transportation study that recommended not tolling the highway.

Raising the tolling issues seems to be a beneficial to Barletta because it shifts the focus away from recent attacks on his Social Security record. However, in order to further pander to Senior Citizens, Kanjorski put out another ad towards the end of last week.

Pull That Ad

Lou Barletta is petitioning local television stations to stop airing the DCCC's ad against him.

Barletta claims the ad unfairly mischaracterizes his stance on Social Security by claiming he supports private accounts. In making his case, Barletta stated in his letter that, "Your station has transmitted this false statement over public airwaves."

It is unlikely that an station will pull the ads. For instance, WNEP has promised to continue airing the ad until they receive comment from the DCCC. However, the DCCC has remained firm in its support of the spot and won't fold in the face of a local dust-up.

From the very beginning of the campaign, Barletta has sought to clarify his position on Social Security. The topic was one of his very first press conferences where he came out with very strong and clear statements against private accounts.

This ad spat comes in the face of both Democratic candidates (Carney and Kanjorski) preempting their Republican opposition by launching their own campaign commercials.

New Update

In a growing acknowledgment that Paul Kanjorski is indeed vulnerable this fall, CQ Politics updated the race from "Safe Democrat" to a weaker incumbency advantage at "Lean Democrat."

It appears CQ was initially reluctant to make the race upgrade:

"CQ Politics initially was hesitant to include Pennsylvania 11 among the ranks of competitive races, though, in part because the NRCC also heavily promoted Barletta’s candidacy against Kanjorski in 2002, when he lost by the substantial margin of 56 percent to 42 percent."

However, it seems the DCCC's ad campaign in the district ("political parties don’t spend money in districts where they expect easy wins") and Barletta's ability to draw district-wide recognition ("it appears he’ll have the resources to wage a credible campaign") have been the two largest factors behind CQ's decision.

I would also add Kanjorski's willingness to begin airing his own television ads before Independence Day and his reluctance to debate Barletta enhance the perception that Kanjorski is nervous about his reelection chances.

Day Of Reckoning

From RealClearPolitics on the FEC Second Quarter Filings:

• Pennsylvania 10: In 2006, Chris Carney ran against a scandal-tainted incumbent Republican in a heavily Republican district, winning by a six-point margin. This year, Carney faces an opponent who doesn't carry the same baggage, and who can largely self-fund his own contest. Carney recognizes the threat, and raised a solid $354,000 in a district that has cheap television rates; he's got $1.15 million left over. His opponent, businessman Chris Hackett, made it through a bruising primary and raised $367,000 this entire quarter, to keep $267,000 in the bank. Hackett has already loaned his campaign $740,000, and more could be coming.

• Pennsylvania 11: Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski could be in serious trouble this year. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is running their first television advertisements of the year on Kanjorski's behalf, and the twelve-term incumbent has raised $488,000 in the Second Quarter, nearly two-thirds of the money he spent during all of the 2006 cycle. With $2.17 million in the bank, Kanjorski will have plenty of money to take on Republican Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, who raised $333,000 in the last three months and still has $322,000 left. Barletta is being outraised, but his prominence on immigration issues could make up for being outspent.

Some campaign reaction on the campaign filings:

• Barletta camp: "Mr. Kanjorski’s support is indicative of the kind of congressman he’s been. I’d rather get money from the people, not from powerful Washington lobbyists and big corporations."
• Kanjorski camp: "We’re letting the numbers speak for themselves. The amount of money one raises is indicative of the support level they have. After you get by all Barletta’s pathetic spin to put a good face on his poor level of support, it’s obvious people are rallying to keep Kanjorski in Congress."
• Hackett camp: "We’re happy with the quarter. We out-raised the incumbent, and anytime that happens things are going well. We’re confident that come November we’ll have the resources we need to win."
• Carney camp: "We’re right where we want to be. Between Republicans for Carney and another strong fundraising quarter, we’ve been overwhelmed and humbled by the strong support we are receiving. We’re very excited about the direction our campaign is heading."

Total cash on hand for the candidates through June 30, 2008:

• Kanjorski: $2,174,387
• Carney: $1,149,938
• Barletta: $321,895
• Hackett: $266,816