The Fight Over The 10th

Chris Carney (Dem-PA-10th) has decided to hold off on his Democratic Presidential endorsement. Even though he stated he would endorse after the Pennsylvania primary, it seems he has decided to wait even longer after seeing the recent election returns.

For those not familiar, Chris Carney beat Republican incumbent Don Sherwood in 2006 to take control of Pennsylvania's 10th District. The district was safeguarded before the '02 midterm elections when it was redistricted to remove Democratic-leaning Scranton. This made the district a virtual Republican lock and allowed Sherwood to win the next two election unopposed. However, Sherwood's long running extramarital affair was revealed after he was charged with choking his mistress. This put the seat in play for the Democrats.

Of the 14 Counties either entirely within or partially within the 10th Congressional District, Clinton carried 13. The only county Obama won was Union County which contains Bucknell University and one of Obama's stronger political blocs--higher income and college educated/students. Below are the exact Presidential primary results for the counties that are within the district:

• Bradford County: Clinton 65.8% vs. Obama 34.2% (+31.6%)
  
• Lackawanna County: Clinton 73.8% vs. Obama 26.2% (+47.6%)
• Luzerne County: Clinton 75.1% vs. Obama 24.9% (+50.2%)
  
• Lycoming County: Clinton 58.5% vs. Obama 41.5% (+17%)
  
• Montour Country: Clinton 60.4% vs. Obama 39.6% (+20.8%)
  
• Northumberland County: Clinton 71.7% vs. Obama 28.3% (+43.4%)
  
• Pike Country: Clinton 58.7% vs. Obama 41.3% (+17.4%)
  
• Snyder County: Clinton 62.5% vs. Obama 37.5% (+25%)
  
• Sullivan County: Clinton 68.4% vs. Obama 31.6% (+36.8%)
  
• Susquehanna County: Clinton 65.3% vs. Obama 34.7% (+30.6%)
• Tioga County: Clinton 61.7% vs. Obama 38.3% (+23.4%)
  
• Union County: Obama 52.1% vs. Clinton 47.9% (-4.2%)
  
• Wayne County: Clinton 62.4% vs. Obama 37.6% (+24.8)
  
• Wyoming County: Clinton 69.4% vs. Obama 30.6% (38.8%)

The average margin of victory for Clinton within these counties was almost 30% (28.8%). Quite impressive considering the statewide margin was less than 10%. This poses quite the political conundrum for Carney.

First and foremost, Carney's primary goal is to win reelection and overcome the sophomore slump. If you look at the most recent voter registration data from the state, this district has a fairly substantial Republican advantage. Excluding the counties that are only partial included, the district has 50,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. This means that Carney has some ground to make up which he has been fighting to overcome. On votes where Democrats have enjoyed a sizeable majority, Carney has been able to break with the party. As it currently stands, he's voted with his party 87.5% of the time which is lower than the average party alignment and near the bottom of the list for all members. This allows Carney to mold the perception that he is a moderate and not way out in left field. In an election year with a largely unpopular President from an opposing party, this moderate image allows Carney to easily avoid ties to President Bush while at the same time not be classified as too liberal. In addition to perpetuating this image, Carney secured the most earmarks of all freshman Democrats by grabbing 21 earmarks worth $18.2 million. Bringing money back to the district is always a plus.

However, assuming Obama wins the nomination, as appears almost certain, one would imagine that Carney can't be too thrilled about sharing a ticket with him. Looking at Obama's election results in these countries, his comments about small towns, and his voting record while in the Senate (which has been called the most liberal by National Journal), he represents the exact appearance that Carney has been trying for so long to avoid. As an uncommitted superdelegate, Carney will be feeling pressure from his party to endorse sooner rather than later. On one hand, if Carney endorses Obama, he is tacitly tied to him and provides Republican with election fodder. The 10th District is a high priority for the Republicans in the fall and even a simple endorsement might place Carney too politically close to Obama. Similarly, if he endorses Clinton by claiming to be following his constituent's will, he risks angering those within the party who want to put an end to the race.

Either way, this race is going to be highly monitored in the coming months.